State of Play

Smart piece by a smart man on why the poll numbers look like they do.

And a slightly tongue in cheek piece by another man who notes that the media is likely to get bored with the Romney-is-losing meme and will try to entertain itself with a new narrative.


The Final Night of the DNC and signs of a Bounce

Sorry for the delay in posting, but you all were watching on Thursday night, right?  Well, in case not, here you go — Obama’s speech.  It got mixed reviews from some pundits, mostly liberal ones who were looking for something more exciting, and this is a more sober address than he gave four years ago, to be sure. But these are sober times, as the disappointing monthly jobs report the next day made clear.

Nonetheless, while the polls didn’t show much, if any movement for Romney, there are signs of a bounce for the president. It is really too soon to tell if this bounce will be lasting or a blip, but some analysts see it as a possible game changer. Here is what Nate Silver (the Citizenship Profile from our Public Opinion Chapter) has to say. I suspect he is a bit optimistic (Obama’s approval ratings on Gallup, which had soared to 52 dipped a little bit today to 50 which may indicate some falling off of the bounce), but we’ll know soon enough.  In the meantime, it is clear that the Romney campaign is feeling some concern.  Some interviews with his advisors here.

Stay tuned!  There is a whole campaign in front of us….